Optimal reservoir operation for water supply in dry season: the case study of cua dat reservoir in the ma - Chu river basin

A NOI September 2014 This research is finished for the partial fulfillment of requirements for the Master of science degree at Water Resources University, Ha Noi, Viet Nam i Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Abstract Water supply of reservoirs and especially reservoirs used for irrigation, hydropower, aquaculture, navigation, environmentin the dry season are often troubled due to increasing water demands according to the economic development and society, while the flow to the reservoir is limited. In recent years, the depletion of the river flow during the dry season occurs more frequently and at a more intense level. This is partly due to forest coverage reduction in the upstream of river basins, and partly due to the effects of climate change. Hence, computation of the optimum water supply of reservoir for the water demands in the dry season is needed. This study presents the initial research on applying Fuzzy Logic Algorithm for optimal operation of water supply in the dry season of 2011-2012 of the Cua Dat Reservoir in the Chu River basin, Thanh Hoa province. The Cua Dat Reservoir is a multi-purpose reservoir for the following tasks: flood prevention, water supply, irrigation, power generation, and environmental flows. In addition, MIKE 11 model is also used to simulate the release from the reservoir to the downstream to evaluate the efficiency of the optimal method. The research used Fuzzy Logic algorithm based on the rule, the principle of "IF - THEN" and built the membership functions for the input variables: water level, inflow to the reservoir, the water demands, and discharge from the reservoir. It is developed for the Fuzzy operating systems for the Cua Dat Reservoir and is meant to determine the optimal discharge process in case of shortage of water in the dry season. Inflows, releases and water levels of the Cua Dat Reservoir were collected from actual operation of the reservoir. For water demand of stakeholders, the author determined that the total water demand for whole area was about 4547 Mi.m3. For hydropower based energy production water is used at the largest rate (67% of total water demand), while domestic purposes water is obtained smallest rate of water use of the Cua Dat Reservoir. Finally, the results from optimal method, the reservoir can meet 80% of water demand more than actual release throughout the dry season of 2011-2012. The initial research has been successful and the results showed that this method can be applied well to the optimal reservoir operation in Vietnam. Key words: Cua Dat, reservoir operation, optimization, Fuzzy Logic, water demand, Fuzzy rule, MIKE 11 model. ii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Acknowledgement First of all, I would like to give a big thank to all people who have supported and assisted me during the Master Thesis Research. Thanks for their support, encouragement and guidance that allowed me to complete this study in time. Especially, I would like to express my appreciation to Dr. Nguyen Mai Dang, my supervisor, for his unlimited encouragement, guidance, comments and technical supports on the Fuzzy Logic approach and other models as well as the thesis writing process from the beginning of the thesis research. I would like to thank NICHE-VNM-106 project from the Government of the Netherlands for their financial support during the MSc study in the ThuyLoi University. I thank to Mrs. Hoang Nguyet Minh and Mrs. Vu Thi Thuy Ngan who made a linkage between me and NICHE. I also would like to thank Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thu Hien, Dean of the Faculty of Water Resources Engineering, for her help and comments during the Master study in the ThuyLoi University. I wish to thank Dr. Ilyas Masih and Ms. Martine Rutten for their feedback, references and support from the proposal process. I also wish to thank Mrs. Mariette Van Tilburg, my English teacher, for her comments and support from the final thesis report. I also want to thank the ThuyLoi University (TLU), Song Chu Irrigation Company, National center for Hydro-Meteorological Service (HMS) for providing me very useful data sets. Thanks to all of my colleagues at the HaNoi University of Natural Resources and Environment in Vietnam for your assistance in the last two years. You will always be in my mind. Last but not least, I want to take this opportunity to show my appreciation to my family, my close friends for their inspiration and support throughout my life; this research is simply impossible without you. iii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Table of Contents CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 1 I.1. Background ............................................................................................................1 I.2. Problem statement ..................................................................................................2 I.3. Objectives and Research questions ........................................................................3 I.3.1. Objectives of the study .................................................................................. 3 I.3.2. Research Questions ....................................................................................... 3 I.4. Structure of the thesis .............................................................................................3 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 5 II.1. Studies on reservoir operation using optimal theory ............................................5 II.2. Fuzzy logic theory ................................................................................................8 II.3. Overview of hydraulic and hydrological modeling ..............................................9 II.4. MIKE model .......................................................................................................11 CHAPTER III: THE STUDY AREA ........................................................................ 13 III.1. Description of the study area .............................................................................13 III.1.1. Location of the study area ......................................................................... 13 III.1.2. River network ........................................................................................... 14 III.1.3. Topographical characteristics ................................................................... 16 III.1.4. Geological, land and vegetable characteristics ......................................... 18 III.2. Climate and hydrological condition ..................................................................18 III.2.1. Climate condition ...................................................................................... 18 III.2.2. Hydrological condition ............................................................................. 23 III.3. Population and economic characteristics ..........................................................23 III.3.1. Population of the study area ..................................................................... 23 III.3.2. Economic characteristics .......................................................................... 24 III.4. Description of the Cua Dat Reservoir ...............................................................24 CHAPTER IV: DATA AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................... 29 IV.1. Data collection ...................................................................................................29 IV.1.1. Meteorological data .................................................................................. 30 IV.1.2. Hydrological data ..................................................................................... 32 IV.1.3. Cua Dat reservoir operation data .............................................................. 34 IV.1.4. Determining total water demand .............................................................. 35 IV.2. Optimal analysis and Fuzzy logic approach for Reservoir operation ...............50 IV.2.1. Methods using in optimal reservoir operation .......................................... 50 IV.2.2. Objective functions and constraints.......................................................... 53 IV.2.3 Using Fuzzy logic technique to optimize the Cua Dat reservoir operation54 IV.3. Hydraulic and hydrological model setup ..........................................................62 IV.3.1. Determination of the model inputs ........................................................... 62 IV.3.2. Model setup .............................................................................................. 63 IV.3.3. Model calibration and validation .............................................................. 65 iv Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis CHAPTER V: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ...................................................... 73 V.1. Optimizing the Cua Dat reservoir operation ......................................................73 V.2. Routing the release to the downstream ...............................................................74 CHAPTER VI: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................... 77 VI.1. Conclusions .......................................................................................................77 VI.2. Recommendations .............................................................................................78 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 80 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. i v Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis List of Figures Figure 2-1: Relationship between the various representations of a model ....................10 Figure 3-1: Location of study in the Thanh Hoa province in Viet Nam .......................13 Figure 3-2: Ma – Chu River Network in Viet Nam .......................................................16 Figure 3-3: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Thanh Hoa province ..........................17 Figure 3-4: The location of the Cua Dat Reservoir on Ma-Chu river system ...............26 Figure 3-5: The main dam of the Cua Dat Reservoir ....................................................28 Figure 3-6: The spillway of the Cua Dat Reservoir ......................................................28 Figure 3-7: The storage of the Cua Dat Reservoir ........................................................28 Figure 3-8: The intake tower of the Cua Dat Reservoir ................................................28 Figure 3-9: The gate of spillway of the Cua Dat Reservoir ..........................................28 Figure 3-10: The Bai Thuong weir ................................................................................28 Figure 4-1: Distribution of monthly rainfall pattern at Thanh Hoa station ...................30 Figure 4-2: Distribution of monthly air temperature at Thanh Hoa station 31 Figure 4-3: Distribution of monthly average evaporation at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 & 2012 ............................................................................................................................31 Figure 4-4: Distribution of relative humidity at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 & 2012 ...32 Figure 4-5: Annual discharge of the Cam Thuy and Cua Dat station ...........................33 Figure 4-6: Schematization of hydrological station network ........................................34 Figure 4-7: Monthly average discharge of Turbin of hydropower plant in years of 2011, 2012 and 2013 ......................................................................................................35 Figure 4-8: Inflow discharge of the Cua Dat reservoir in 2011 and 2012 .....................35 Figure 4-9: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Spring paddy in 2011 39 Figure 4-10: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of winter paddy in 2011 ........................................................................................................................................41 Figure 4-11: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of sugar cane in 2011 ...42 Figure 4-12: Water use structure of whole downstream area of the Cua Dat reservoir in 2011 ................................................................................................................................48 Figure 4-13: General flow chart of optimal reservoir operation in dry season .............52 Figure 4-14: Fuzzy inference system for Fuzzy Mamdani ............................................56 Figure 4-15: Transformation of input variable to membership value ...........................57 Figure 4-16: Membership function for reservoir level for Fuzzy Mamdani model ......58 Figure 4-17: Membership function for inflow for Fuzzy Mamdani model ...................58 Figure 4-18: Membership function for water demand for Fuzzy Mamdani model.......59 Figure 4-19: Membership function for release for Fuzzy Mamdani model ..................59 Figure 4-20: Fuzzy rules base for operation of Cua Dat reservoir ................................60 vi Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-21: Process of application, implication and aggregation ................................61 Figure 4-22: Hydraulic network of the Ma – Chu river basin .......................................65 Figure 4-23: Observed and simulated hydrograph at Cua Dat station in 2006 .............67 Figure 4-24: Observed and simulated hydrograph at Cua Dat station in 2008 .............68 Figure 4-25: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Ly Nhan Station in 2006 ................................................................................................................................69 Figure 4-26: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Xuan Khanh Station in 2006 ............................................................................................................................69 Figure 4-27: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Giang Station in 2006 ................................................................................................................................70 Figure 4-28: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Ly Nhan Station in 2008 ................................................................................................................................71 Figure 4-29: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Xuan Khanh Station in 2006 ............................................................................................................................71 Figure 4-30: Observed and simulated hydrograph of water level at Giang Station in 2006 ................................................................................................................................72 Figure 4-31: Structure of fuzzy system for Cua Dat reservoir ......................................73 Figure 4-32: Comparison of water demand and fuzzy and actual releases ...................74 Figure 5-1: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Bai Thuong weir .........................75 Figure 5-2: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Xuan Khanh station ....................75 Figure 5-3: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Giang station ...............................76 vii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis List of Tables Table 3-1: Distribution of natural areas according to provincial border of the Ma river basin (ha) ........................................................................................................................14 Table 3-2: Characteristics of river shape of some large tributaries ...............................15 Table 3-3: Average annual rainfall for many years at some stations of the Ma river basin ................................................................................................................................19 Table 3-4: Annual rainfall characteristics ......................................................................20 Table 3-5: Monthly and annual wind speed at some stations of the Ma river basin (m/s) ........................................................................................................................................21 Table 3-6: Average monthly temperature for many years at some stations ..................22 Table 3-7: Monthly average evaporation of some stations of the Ma River Basin .......22 Table 3-8: Some main parameters of the Cua Dat Reservoir ........................................25 Table 4-1: Kinds of data have been used in the study ...................................................29 Table 4-2: Crop distribution of different cultivated area in downstream of the Cua Dat reservoir ..........................................................................................................................36 Table 4-3: Plant coefficients of paddy ...........................................................................39 Table 4-4: Plant coefficients of other plants ..................................................................39 Table 4-5: Water requirement of Spring paddy in 2011 ................................................40 Table 4-6: Water requirement of winter paddy in 2011 ................................................41 Table 4-7: Water requirement of sugar cane in 2011 ....................................................42 Table 4-8: Monthly water demand of agriculture of whole area in the Cua Dat reservoir downstream in 2011 .......................................................................................................44 Table 4-9: Water demand of industrial production at downstream of the Cua Dat reservoir ..........................................................................................................................45 Table 4-10: Domestic water demand of downstream area ............................................46 Table 4-11: Structure of water use of whole area in 2011 .............................................48 Table 4-12: Water demands and inflows in ten-day period in 2011 .............................49 Table 4-13: List of tributary basin on the Ma – Chu river basin ...................................64 Table 4-14: Results of MIKE 11HD model calibration at Ma-Chu river basin in 2006 ........................................................................................................................................70 Table 4-15: Results of MIKE 11HD model validation at the Ma-Chu river basin in 2008 ................................................................................................................................72 Table 4-16: The NASH for calculation of alternatives ..................................................74 Table 5-1: Flow characteristics at the Chu River downstream using optimal operation ........................................................................................................................................76 1 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION I.1. Background Reservoirs play an important role in the development of many countries. Nowadays, there are many reservoirs and dams which were built in many developing countries for various purposes, for example, water supply, flood control, electric generation, environment and recreationHowever, in 18th Century reservoirs were built to supply water, flood control and navigation as the main purposes, after that reservoirs were built for hydropower generation purpose by increasing demand for energy consumption of human. As mentioned above, most of reservoirs are used for multiple-purpose. All those purposes need to be satisfied but the capacity of reservoir is limited. For this reason some conflicts may happen among the water users who have other interests and conflicts also may happen in reservoir itself. For hydropower generation, higher storage of water is needed, on the contrary, much water should be relaesed for cultivated areas in dry season especially. Besides this, there are also many other conflicts in user factors such as transportation and hydropower generation, flood control and environmentetc. Vietnam has many big river networks with nine major river basins spread along the country. At present, many multi-purpose reservoirs were built to serve the socio- economic issues such as Cua Dat, Hoa Binh and Dau Tieng Reservoir...etc. The management and operation for many purposes are really difficult. On the other hand, the operation of each reservoir is a challenge for management and operators. Reservoir operation is needed to balance efficiently interests of water users and satisfy constraint systems aim to get maximum interests. An optimal policy is necessary to accomplish the problem objective and rule curve is one of appropriate methods to determine operation policy of reservoir. Reservoir operation policy specifies the criteria to retain or release water in or from a reservoir at different times of the year depending upon the inflows and demands. 2 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Optimization model used the mathematical programming technique to find the best possible solution based on a specific performance function and some physical constraints. Mathematical programming includes several techniques such as dynamic programming (DP), nonlinear programming (NLP), linear programming (LP), genetic algorithms (GAs) and optimal control theory (OCT) (Hirad and Ramamurthy 2000). Within the development of soft computing technique, optimal technique has been used in number water resources issues. In this thesis, the author will use Fuzzy technique combine with hydraulic model to develop an operation policy for multi- purpose reservoir in an efficient way. I.2. Problem statement The Ma river basin is located in the North-West region of Vietnam, it borders Laos on the West. The upstream basin is located in Vietnam, the middle basin is located in Laos and the downstream is located in Vietnam. The Ma river basin is an international basin. The catchment area of Ma river basin is about 31.060 Km2 of which that in Vietnam is 20.190 Km2 (IWRP 2003). The Chu River is a main tributary of the Ma River. It is located in the downstream area (IWRP 2003). Based on potential water resources of this river system, many kinds of reservoir such as single purpose and multi-purpose were built on the main river of the Ma river system. The Cua Dat Reservoir is one of the biggest projects related to water resource projects in Thanh Hoa province. The Cua Dat Reservoir is a multi-purpose reservoir. Those purposes include as: to reduce flood peak and protect downstream area due to probability of flood of 0.6% and control water level in downstream area at Xuan Khanh station on the Chu river (under 13.71m) in high flow season; To supply discharge of 7.715 m3/s for domestic and industrial water demand; To irrigate about 86.862 ha cultivated area; To generate electricity with capacity of 97 MW; To prevent salt water intrusion lower than 1‰ at Ham Rong measured station (MARD 2013). As mentioned above, the Cua Dat Reservoir has purposes are to supply water for some water users such as hydropower generation, agriculture, industry, domestic and environment. However, in dry season the increasing water demand of water users is one of the important problems within water shortage in this river basin due to less rainfall will enhance the conflicts among all the factors. In order to balance different 3 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis water interests and solve the problems which related to using water, the Cua Dat reservoir needs to optimize reservoir operation. I.3. Objectives and Research questions I.3.1. Objectives of the study The main objectives of this research are: - To optimize operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir in dry season, Thanh Hoa province by using simulation model (MIKE 11 model) and optimal model (Fuzzy Logic Technique). - To provide management recommendations or alternatives and suggest appropriate method of operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir in the Ma – Chu river basin. I.3.2. Research Questions 1. What is Fuzzy logic theory and how to apply fuzzy logic in reservoir operation? 2. How to balance the water demand and water interests of the stakeholders in operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir? 3. What are the objective functions and constraints in operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir? 4. Does the Cua Dat Reservoir supply enough water for all of sectors in downstream area regarding to current scenarios? I.4. Structure of the thesis This thesis structure includes those parts as below: Chapter 1: This chapter discusses an overview of the study, the problem statement and the objectives of the study are presented. Chapter 2: This chapter reviews several researches of optimal reservoir operation. Overview of hydrological model and optimization formulation are presented. MIKE 11 model also is briefly introduced in this chapter. Chapter 3: This chapter presents natural characteristic, natural conditions of the study as well as population and economic characteristics of the study. Moreover, this chapter also briefly introduces characteristics of the Cua Dat Reservoir and water demand of each water user in downstream area. Chapter 4: This chapter describes all kind of data collection and data analysis which are used in this study. In this chapter, the author also shows the results of data 4 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis calculation as the input of hydrological modeling and calculating water demand of each water user in the downstream area. This chapter determines the objective functions and all of constraint systems in the Cua Dat reservoir as well as using optimization model to determine optimal rule curve (standard rule curve). Hence, the author also presents MIKE 11 model set up for calibration and validation model and the results of routing flow from the Cua Dat Reservoir by MIKE 11 model in this chapter. Chapter 5: The results of optimal model and simulation model are shown in this chapter through figures and evaluation tables. The chapter also analyzes the results from two models in order to achieve the objectives of the study. Chapter 6: This chapter also focuses on the main performances, conclusions and recommendations for future studies. 5 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW II.1. Studies on reservoir operation using optimal theory Optimization is scientific field about best choice in some possible alternatives. Optimal theory has been developed and investigated for many years over the world. Optimization has been applied to a lot of fields in human life. Especially, in water resource issues are used optimal theory as one of the effective tools for management and decision making. Furthermore, optimization techniques have become increasingly important in management and operations of complex reservoir systems. In reservoir management, a lot of researchers have developed reservoir optimal operation during the past four decades using dynamic programming (DP), linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), etc.(Cheng et al. 2008). Rama and Sharad (2009) have developed operation policy for multi-purpose reservoir in India using Neuro – Fuzzy technique including Fuzzy Mamdani and ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Interactive system). Their research determined operation policy for monsoon period and non-monsoon period of Ramganga reservoir and optimum releases against demands for domestic supply, irrigation and hydropower generation. In other research, Omid et al. (2008) used optimal algorithm (HBMO- Honey Bee Mating Optimization) for single and multi-purpose reservoir to minimize the total present net cost of the system and maximum possible ratio for generate electricity with installed capacity. In a case study of Hirakud Reservoir in Mahanadi basin, India, D.Nagesh Kumar et al. (2009) used Folded Dynamic Programming (FDP) to develop a long -term optimal operation policies for flood control. He showed that FDP is a new search technique which can take care of all difficulties of other methods to certain extend faced. Long N.L et al. (2007) presented successfully a method as a tool for optimizing operation of reservoir by using a combination of the simulation model and optimal model. The authors optimized control strategies for the largest reservoir in Vietnam, Hoa Binh Reservoir, in order to neutralize the conflicts in regulating water between flood control and hydropower generation. The authors also organized two main purposes in the flood season. With simulation model, they used MIKE 11 to guide the 6 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis releases of the reservoir system according to the current storage level, the hydro- meteorological conditions, and the time of the year. Afterward, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm was chosen as a perfect tool for optimizing the reservoir operation. Babel et al. (2011) analyzed that the tradeoff between hydropower production and environmental flow requirements for the hydropower system and the impact of alternative scenarios of a hydropower system operation on energy production...Thuong 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 Thanh Hoa 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 Nhu Xuan 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 22 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aver. Yen Dinh 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Tinh Gia 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 (Source: Final engineering report of the Cua Dat Reservoir in operation period -2014) c) Temperature There are 02 regions on the Ma river basin with different temperature regime. The highland, cold season starts from November to February, dry season is from March to October. The temperature of this region is similar to North- West region. The delta of Ma river, average annual temperature is higher than the highland. The Winter ends early than North region form 15 – 20 days, the highest temperature is higher than highland. On whole basin, average annual temperature changes from 2204 to 23.60C. Average sunshine hours are range from 1,756.7 to1.896.4 hrs/year. Table 3-6: Average monthly temperature for many years at some stations Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aver. Tuan Giao 14.6 16.3 19.5 22.6 24.6 25.1 25.2 24.8 23.9 21.6 18.3 15.0 21.0 Song Ma 16.1 18.5 21.2 24.3 26.1 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.1 22.8 19.6 16.3 22.4 Hoi Xuan 16.6 18.0 20.7 24.5 26.9 27.6 27.6 27.0 25.6 23.5 20.5 17.6 23.0 Lac Son 15.9 17.3 20.2 24.0 27.2 28.0 28.3 27.6 26.3 23.7 20.4 17.3 23.0 Bai Thuong 16.5 17.5 20.1 23.9 27.0 28.2 28.4 27.6 26.6 24.3 21.2 18.0 23.3 Thanh Hoa 17.0 17.3 19.8 23.5 27.2 28.9 29.0 28.2 26.4 24.5 22.4 18.6 23.6 Nhu Xuan 16.5 11.3 20.0 23.6 27.3 28.6 28.9 27.8 26.5 24.2 20.8 17.9 23.3 Yen Dinh 16.7 17.6 20.2 23.6 27.2 28.5 28.9 28.0 26.8 24.4 21.2 18.1 23.4 Tinh Gia 16.8 17.1 19.6 23.2 27.2 28.9 29.5 28.3 26.8 24.5 21.2 18.1 23.4 (Source: Final engineering report of the Cua Dat Reservoir in operation period -2014) d) Evaporation Total yearly evaporation on the basin is from 872 mm to 925 mm. Minimum daily average is about 1.3 mm/day, maximum is 4.6 mm/day. The maximum evaporation happens in May, June and July. The difference of land evaporation and water evaporation ∆Z = 230 – 250 mm/year. Table 3-7: Monthly average evaporation of some stations of the Ma River Basin Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aver. Tuan Giao 57.9 69.2 89.5 93.2 89.2 63.4 62.4 55.8 60.1 59.7 53.0 53.4 806.8 23 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aver. Song Ma 65.0 81.7 111.6 108.6 101.4 62.0 56.8 51.2 57.7 60.8 57.6 57.6 872.0 Hoi Xuan 87.9 104.4 141.3 133.0 129.9 90.4 78.8 62.5 63.9 68.0 67.5 75.7 1103.3 Lac Son 56.2 63.5 89.8 102.2 112.0 89.2 86.2 62.8 58.8 63.0 55.8 56.2 895.7 Bai Thuong 39.8 42.5 53.0 65.3 79.2 64.8 64.4 52.0 46.6 48.1 41.1 42.6 639.4 Thanh Hoa 48.3 44.7 49.7 65.5 91.2 79.5 81.7 59.7 56.1 60.7 55.6 56.5 749.2 Nhu Xuan 47.7 42.7 44.8 56.6 82.4 79.5 85.8 67.4 66.3 72.3 70.5 67.1 783.4 Yen Dinh 54.6 39.8 39.7 50.0 89.7 94.4 104.3 74.7 63.9 74.8 69.9 64.9 820.7 Tinh Gia 46.3 36.5 40.2 53.9 106.3 124.8 138.5 88.2 68.0 78.5 76.1 68.1 925.4 Tuan Giao 63.9 50.6 49.7 55.2 86.5 88.3 101.6 68.1 63.0 74.4 78.3 76.7 856.3 Song Ma 48.5 33.4 33.6 47.4 98.3 121.3 138.2 92.6 68.3 70.5 77.6 67.7 897.4 (Source: Final engineering report of the Cua Dat Reservoir in operation period -2014) III.2.2. Hydrological condition Flood season on the Ma River often happens from June to October, accounts for 73-74 percentage of total annual water. Dry season is from November to May. Three months which have maximum flow is July, August and September with 53 – 56 % in total while that of August has maximum flow with 20 – 30% in total. On the Chu River, flood season often occurs from July to October, accounts for 52 – 60% in total. The month that has maximum flow is September with 20 -24 % in total annual flow. Dry flow occurs in dry season in year. The Ma River Basin has dry season which is from November to May. Besides that dry season spreads 08 months, from October to June on the Chu River Basin. Amount of flow in this season only takes 20 – 35% in total. In general, dry season can be divided into 03 periods: First period includes 02 months (November and December), this period can be seen as middle period between 02 seasons, maximum middle dry period is from January to April in year. III.3. Population and economic characteristics III.3.1. Population of the study area According to the statistical yearbook 2012, the population of the Thanh Hoa province is about 3,697,227 people. Highland population is 718,000 people. The others 24 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis live in the delta where can be damaged by flood. The natural population growth rate is 0.8 %. Due to current statistical population, there are 13 peoples who live on the Ma river basin. The population of Kinh people is very popular with 80 % in total and the second is Muong people with 10%, other ethnic groups are Thai, Lo Lo, Ha Nhi, Thanh, Meo who live in high mountain region. There is no border among life area of the peoples. They live together forming a people community on this basin. III.3.2. Economic characteristics Based on statistical data in year of 2007, general economic distribution of the Thanh Hoa province was as follow: Industry was 36.87 %, Service was 34.77 %, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishier was 28.36 % of GDP in year of 2007 was 25,689.3 billion VND. The economic growth rate was about 10.5 %. The major economic activities were paddy rice cultivation, farming of industrial crops, trading, livestock breeding and handicraft. III.4. Description of the Cua Dat Reservoir - Position: The Cua Dat reservoir has been constructed on Chu River and in Xuan My Commune, Thuong Xuan District, Thanh Hoa province (Figure 3-4). This is the largest reservoir which has maximum storage on the Ma – Chu river system with total storage of 1,364 million cubic meter. Some main parameters of the Cua Dat Reservoir are shown in the table 3-8. -Main objectives of the reservoir: This is a multi-purpose reservoir with following objectives: - To control flood in order to protect downstream area with probability flood of 0.6 %. To ensure water level of the Chu River at Xuan Khanh station (Tho Xuan district) is lower than 13.71 meter; - Supplying domestic and industrial water with suitable discharge of 7.715 m3/s; - Irrigating for 86,862 ha of cultivated land (Including Nam Song Chu region is 54,301 ha and Bac Song Chu – Nam Song Ma is 32,831 ha) - Generating hydropower with installed capacity of 97 MW 25 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis - Supplying additional water in dry season with discharge of 30.42 m3/s in order to control salt intrusion at Ham Rong Bridge (lower than 1 ‰). Table 3-8: Some main parameters of the Cua Dat Reservoir No. Parameters Units Values I Basin parameters 1 Basin area Flv km2 5938 2 Annual average discharge Q0 m3/s 115 3 Design maximum discharge P = 0 ,1% m3/s 15,400 4 Test maximum discharge P = 0,01% m3/s 22,100 II Reservoir parameters 1 Surface area of the reservoir at useful water level km2 30,79 2 Normal water level m 110 3 Dead water level m 73 4 Total storage Wth 106 m3 1,364 5 Conservation storage Whi 106 m3 793.70 6 Flood control storage Wpl 106 m3 368.60 7 Dead storage Wc 106 m3 268.69 III Construction Dam 1 Dam crest elevation m 122.50 2 Maximum height of the dam m 115.50 Valve 1 Surface weir with arc valve 2 Weir crest elevation m 97 3 No. of weir bays 05 4 Quantity and size of valves n(BxH) 5(11x17) 5 Maximum release m3/s 11.594 Hydropower Plant 1 Install capacity MW 97 2 Maximum turbin discharge m3/s 156.26 3 Minimum turbin discharge m3/s 38.29 4 E0 106kWh 26 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis No. Parameters Units Values 5 No. of turbines Groups 02 (Source: Final engineering report of the Cua Dat Reservoir in operation period -2014) Figure 3-4: The location of the Cua Dat Reservoir on the Ma-Chu river system - Existing operation rule curve of the Cua Dat Reservoir: Reservoir operation plays an important role and is one of problems related to water resources planning and management. Generally, after dam construction, an operation policy has been established to help managers giving significant decisions. Operation policy is determined based on water storage, water demand and all of information of inflow with current reservoir status. The single purpose reservoir decides an operation policy which aimed to maximize that purpose interest. The multi- purpose reservoir is optimal release allocation in order to balance interest among purposes. Finally, the complex operation is based on amount of objectives and membership functions. The Cua Dat Reservoir has been operated since 2012. Annual operation policy of this reservoir is established by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD). According to new operation policy during the flood season in 2013 to the beginning of flood season in 2014, included 7 main chapters with following concepts: (1) General article; (2) Regulated operation in flood season in 2013; (3) Regulated 27 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis operation in dry season in 2014; (4) Emergency operation; (5) Monitoring Meteorological – hydrological data; (6) Responsibility and Right; (7) Implementation policy. According to the purpose of this thesis, the third policy is considered to be the most important. The articles of third policy will be briefly described as below: Article 9: Before the dry season in 2014, Song Chu Irrigation Company has to plan to supply water which is based on current storage reservoir, meteo-hydrological forecast, water demand. It should be reported to the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Thanh Hoa province, and all of water users in the system. Article 10: Regulate water level of reservoir in dry season 1- During regulated operation, the reservoir elevation must be above or equal the lower rule curve in operation policy. 2- Lowest reservoir elevation at the end of every month is described as below: TIME 31/XII 31/1 28/II 31/III 30/IV 31/V 30/VI LWL (m) 99 95 90 81 77 74 73 Article 11: When the reservoir elevation is above or equal the lowest rule curve, Song Chu Irrigation Company must supply enough water to all of water users according to the water supply planning. Article 12: Hydropower generation schedule of the Cua Dat and Doc Cay hydropower plant have to follow the irrigation schedule of the Cua Dat reservoir. Article 13: Operate water supply in some emergency cases 1- When the reservoir elevation is lower than lower rule curve and above inactive level, Song Chu Irrigation Company and water users need to implement water saving solutions. 2- When the reservoir elevation is equal or lower than inactive level, Song Chu Irrigation Company need to plan a water supply schedule using inactive storage, then, reports the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Thanh Hoa province in order to make decision and implement. Some figures that the author collected after the field survey to the Cua Dat Reservoir in 2014. Those pictures present clearly constructions or parameters related to the Cua Dat Reservoir such as dam, flood valve, spillway, storage, intake tower, and weirThose pictures are as below: 28 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 3-5: The main dam of the Cua Dat Reservoir Figure 3-6: The spillway of the Cua Dat Reservoir Figure 3-7: The storage of the Cua Dat Reservoir Figure 3-8: The intake tower of the Cua Dat Reservoir Figure 3-9: The gate of spillway of the Cua Dat Reservoir Figure 3-10: The Bai Thuong weir 29 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis CHAPTER IV DATA AND METHODOLOGY IV.1. Data collection In this thesis, the author used some kinds of data for the contents such as: Determining water demand, Optimizing reservoir operation and Numerical model. The datasets were used in this study including meteorological data, hydrological data, the Cua Dat Reservoir data and some other information regarding to crops, population and industrial zones. They are listed in the following table: Table 4-1: Kinds of data were used in the study Categories Data Sources Climate - Rainfall - Evaporation - Relative humidity - Wind speed - Sunshine hours National center for Hydro- Meteorological Service Hydrology - Water level of rivers - Discharge of rivers National center for Hydro- Meteorological Service Reservoir - Reservoir and dam parameters - Reservoir objectives - Capacity curve (Reservoir’s water level and storage and Reservoir’s water level and surface area relation) - Other related data Song Chu Irrigation Company Other data - Crops on cultivated area - Population - Industrial zone The above data set were accumulated from Vietnamese Institutions and Organizations such as the National center for Meteo-hydrological Service and Song Chu Irrigation Company (Table 4-1). The kinds of data have been established as well as checking, approved by these organizers. Hence it is able to have confidence into those sources. The data collection plays an important role in the thesis calculation, as a foundation is to determine water demand of each crop, operate the reservoir and set the hydraulic model for study area and achieve the better output of this thesis so far. 30 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis IV.1.1. Meteorological data In the study area, there are many rainfall stations and meteorological stations. These stations have been located in or close to the basin and have a long time period of observation (from 1980 to 2009). However, the author did not use all of them, it only used some of them due to data quality and location of stations. In order to define the water demand of each crop and cultivated plants, the author used the meteorological data of the Thanh Hoa station such as rainfall, evaporation, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours within time interval of daily period of 02 years (2011 and 2012). Some of figures of these data are shown as following: According to the Figure 4-1, we can see that maximum rainfall occurs in the month of September in year of 2011 and 2012. The rainfall in the month of January to May is quite small. The rainfall increased significantly from June to September and it reaches a peak at September with more than 700 mm in year of 2011, more than 400 in year of 2012. Then, it decreased from October to April. Figure 4-1: Distribution of monthly rainfall pattern at Thanh Hoa station 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII M o n th ly r a in fa ll ( m m ) Months Monthly rainfall at Thanh Hoa station in year of 2011&2012 2011 2012 31 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-2: Distribution of monthly air temperature at Thanh Hoa station The figure 4-2 shows the rate of changes of air temperature at the Thanh Hoa meteorological station in year of 2011. The red line is monthly maximum air temperature as well as the blue line is minimum monthly air temperature. From January until to March, air temperature changes from about 10 to 25 0C. Then air temperature increased significantly from April to July reaching the maximum value at July with about 37 0C. The same with air temperature in the figure 4-2, monthly average evaporation increased from January to July and got maximum value in the month of July with 125 mm/month in 2011 and in June with 178 mm/month in 2012. Figure 4-3: Distribution of monthly average evaporation at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 & 2012 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Max T 24 24 24.7 29.7 36.2 36 38 37.1 37 31.6 30.2 24 Min T 8.8 12 9 14.5 21 23 24.3 23.5 22.2 18.6 17.8 9.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 T ( 0 c) Monthly average air temperature at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII m m /m o n th Months Monthly average evaporation at Thanh Hoa station in 2011&2012 2011 2012 32 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-4: Distribution of relative humidity at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 & 2012 Regarding to the above figure, we can see the change of relative humidity in 2011 and 2012. The relative humidity is quite high more than 75% for both two years. The maximum value occurred in month of February in 2012 with 91% and in month of April in 2011 with 90%. The minimum value occurred in June and July in 2011 and 2012 respectively (77 and 81%). Finally, the other rainfall stations were also collected in order to calculate hydrological and hydraulic contents including Cam Thuy, Hoi Xuan, Giang, Cua Dat and Kim Tan stations within the long period of over 20 years. IV.1.2. Hydrological data The study basin has had 31 hydrological stations including 14 discharge stations, 17 water level stations in tidal zone and non-tidal zone. So far most of stations which have been located on distributaries have been stopped or changed. Currently, the basin has 12 hydrological stations including 03 discharge stations, named, Xa La, Cam Thuy and Cua Dat stations, 06 water level stations are in tidal zone and non-tidal zone. The hydrological station network have been distributed unevenly, the stations were concerntrated mostly in downtream and middle area of the Ma river. The uptream or highland has a few stations. Especially, there is no discharge data from Laos and it is quite difficult to collect. 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 1 3 5 7 9 11 P er ce n ta g e (% ) Months Relative humidity at Thanh Hoa station in 2011 & 2012 2011 2012 33 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis There are a lot of hydrological stations on the basin but the stations do not have the same observation period. Hence, in order to set up the river modeling, the author has collected discharge data from stations such as Cua Dat, Cam Thuy, Lach Sung, Lach Truong, Xuan Khanh, Giang, Ly Nhan and Hoang Tan stations that have the comprehensive period. Figure 4-5: Annual discharge of the Cam Thuy and Cua Dat station As mentioned above, the data set were collected from Vietnamese Institutions and Organizations such as the National center for Meteo-hydrological Service and Song Chu Irrigation Company. In this thesis the quality of the data sets is checked. Hence, it is possible to use all kinds of data to calculate water demands of water users using CROPWAT model, hydraulic routing using MIKE model as well as optimizing reservoir operation using Fuzzy Logic technique. The locations of all stations and Dams on the river basin are illustrated on the schematization of the Figure 4-6 as following: 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 A n u a l d is ch a rg e (m 3 /s ) YearsCam Thuy Cua Dat 34 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-6: Schematization of hydrological station network IV.1.3. Cua Dat reservoir operation data Most of the data of the Cua Dat Reservoir were collected to calculate the optimal operation. The data collected includes existing rule curve of this reservoir, inflow into the reservoir, water level of the reservoir, observation discharge of hydropower plant. The observed data was recorded during the operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir for short period as this reservoir has just operated since 2010. 35 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis All those dataset were provided by Song Chu Irrigation Company during the field survey so that they had high confidence to design optimal system. Those kinds of data are showed in the following figure: Figure 4-7: Monthly average discharge of Turbin of hydropower plant in years of 2011, 2012 and 2013 Figure 4-8: Inflow discharge of the Cua Dat reservoir in 2011 and 2012 IV.1.4. Determining total water demand In this part, the author determined water demand of each water users such as agriculture, industrial zone, domestic, hydropower and environment. According to the 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII M o n th ly a v er a g e d is ch a rg e o f T u rb in o f H y d ro p o w er p la n t (m 3 /s ) Months2011 2012 2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 D is ch a rg e (m 3 /s ) Days2011 2012 36 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis results of each water demand, the author also defined the total water demand which is an important value for optimizing reservoir operation. Water demand of each water sector will be implemented as following: 1- Agriculture Based on the construction objectives of the Cua Dat reservoir, this reservoir has one propose is to supply water for two irrigated areas of Bac Song Chu (54,031 ha) and Nam Song Ma (32.831 ha). The Bac Song Chu area includes districts such as Ta Tho Xuan, Ngoc Lac, Thuong Xuan, Yen Dinh, Ta Thieu Hoa and Cam Thuy districts. As well as, the Nam Song Chu area includes Trieu Son, Dong Son, Huu Tho Xuan, Thanh Hoa City, Nong Cong, Quang Xuong and Huu Thieu Hoa districts. In order to determine water demand of agriculture, the author used data from the statistical year book of Thanh Hoa province in the year of 2011. To implement identify crop plants and cultivated area of each crop due to unit of district or city in the irrigated area in the downstream of the Cua Dat reservoir. Thence, the author calculated water requirement of each crop according to the cultivated area in year of 2011. The total requirement of whole cultivated area is determined though water requirement of water users on the study area. In this part, the author used the software of CROPWAT 8.0 to determine water requirement for agriculture factor. The data was used in the CROPWAT software including monthly rainfall, average air temperature, monthly evaporation, monthly average relative humidity and others such as wind, sunshine hour, plant coefficient Kc (Table 4-3), crop distribution (Table 4-2). The meteorological data has collected at the Thanh Hoa station and others from different sources. Table 4-2: Crop distribution of different cultivated area in downstream of the Cua Dat reservoir Cultivated areas Crops Season Planted area (ha) Nursery period Harvest period Total growing period (days) Bac Song Chu – Nam Food crops and Fruit crops Paddy Spring 23370 25-Nov 24-Mar 110-120 37 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Song Ma Winter 24889 8-May 2-Nov Maize Spring 1870 05-Feb 30-Apr 110 Summer 1427 15-Jun 25-Sep 110 Winter 5049 30-Sep 20-Jan 110 Sweet potato Spring 705 November January Summer 305 Winter 1614 20-Oct 26-Feb 130 Vegetables Spring 449 10-Feb 10-May 90 Summer 538 Winter 943 15-Aug 20-Jan 90 Annual industrial crops Sugar cane Annual 3055 10-May 9-May Groundnut Spring 1303 5-Sep 30-Dec 110 Summer 230 20-Jun 10-Oct Sesame Spring 32 22- 4-Aug 70 Summer 406 15-May 4-Aug Perennial industrial crops Rubber Annual 822 Nam Song Chu Food crops and Fruit crops Paddy Spring 36632 25-Nov 24-Mar 110-120 Winter 37197 8-May 2-Nov Maize Spring 2084 05-Feb 30-Apr 110 Summer 893 15-Jun 25-Sep 110 Winter 6500 30-Sep 20-Jan 110 Sweet potato Spring 658 November January Summer 4181 Winter Vegetables Spring 1065 10-Feb 10-May 90 Summer 1496 Winter 15-Aug 20-Jan 90 Annual industrial crops Sugar cane Spring 1821 10-May 9-May Groundnut Spring 658 5-Sep 30-Dec 110 38 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Summer 270 20-Jun 10-Oct Sesame Spring 50 22- 4-Aug 70 Summer 232 15-May 4-Aug Perennial industrial crops Rubber Annual 411 Whole area Food crops and Fruit crops Paddy Spring 60002 25-Nov 24-Mar 110-120 Winter 62086 8-May 2-Nov Maize Spring 3954 100 Summer 2320 15-Jun 25-Sep 100 Winter 11549 100 Sweet potato Spring 1363 Summer 4486 Winter 1614 Vegetables Spring 1514 Summer 2034 Winter 943 Annual industrial crops Sugar cane Spring 4876 10-May 9-May Groundnut Spring 1961 Summer 500 20-Jun 10-Oct Sesame Spring 82 Summer 638 Perennial industrial crops Rubber Annual 1233 (Source: www.thanhhoa.gov.vn) Plant coefficient (Kc) is an experimental parameter, which is determined through ratio between water demand of plant and the potential evaporation of each growing period. Those parameters can be changed by the users based on their experience and depend on number of growing days of each crop plant. The plant coefficients of paddy and others are shown in following tables: 39 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Table 4-3: Plant coefficients of paddy No. of growing days 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Kc 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.08 1.15 1.25 1.30 1.38 1.35 1.25 1.10 0.95 Table 4-4: Plant coefficients of other plants Type of plants Kc in Initial period Kc in Middle period Kc in Growth period Maize 0.30 1.20 1.05 Sweet potato 0.50 1.10 0.50 Groundnut 0.55 1.15 0.90 Vegetables 0.70 1.05 0.60 Sugar cane 0.40 1.25 0.95 Đậu tương 0.40 1.15 0.75 The results of water demand of some of crops are showed in the below tables and figures. Other results are showed in the Appendix1. Figure 4-9: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Spring paddy in 2011 40 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Table 4-5: Water requirement of Spring paddy in 2011 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Oct 3 Nurs 1.04 0.31 1.8 14.7 0 Nov 1 Nurs/LPr 1.06 1.96 19.6 10.2 30.2 Nov 2 Nurs/LPr 1.08 2.95 29.5 0 99.5 Nov 3 Init 1.18 2.99 29.9 3.3 83.9 Dec 1 Init 1.25 2.9 29 11.5 17.5 Dec 2 Deve 1.3 2.74 27.4 15 12.4 Dec 3 Deve 1.54 3.17 34.8 10.2 24.6 Jan 1 Deve 1.8 3.6 36 1.5 34.4 Jan 2 Mid 1.97 3.85 38.5 0 38.5 Jan 3 Mid 1.98 3.81 41.9 0.4 41.5 Feb 1 Mid 1.98 3.75 37.5 1 36.5 Feb 2 Mid 1.98 3.7 37 1.3 35.7 Feb 3 Late 1.89 3.62 29 6.7 22.3 Mar 1 Late 1.59 3.12 31.2 14.5 16.7 Mar 2 Late 1.25 2.51 25.1 20.2 4.9 Mar 3 Late 1.01 2.24 8.9 6.4 0.1 Total 457.1 116.8 498.9 41 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-10: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of winter paddy in 2011 Table 4-6: Water requirement of winter paddy in 2011 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Jul 1 Nurs 1.04 0.47 2.3 20.5 0 Jul 2 Nurs/LPr 1.06 2.71 27.1 34.5 21.2 Jul 3 Nurs/LPr 1.08 4.79 52.7 40.1 82.6 Aug 1 Init 1.18 5.09 50.9 46.9 59.6 Aug 2 Init 1.25 5.2 52 51.1 0.9 Aug 3 Deve 1.27 5.14 56.5 56.1 0.4 Sep 1 Deve 1.33 5.26 52.6 65.4 0 Sep 2 Mid 1.37 5.29 52.9 72.4 0 Sep 3 Mid 1.38 4.94 49.4 60.8 0 Oct 1 Mid 1.38 4.58 45.8 47.5 0 Oct 2 Late 1.32 4.03 40.3 38.2 2.1 Oct 3 Late 1.09 3.24 35.6 27 8.7 Nov 1 Late 0.95 2.72 5.4 2 5.4 Total 523.7 562.6 180.9 42 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 4-11: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of sugar cane in 2011 Table 4-7: Water requirement of sugar cane in 2011 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec May 1 Init 0.78 2.85 2.8 0.4 21.3 May 2 Init 0.4 1.67 16.7 0.3 16.4 May 3 Init 0.4 1.69 18.6 18.3 0.3 Jun 1 Deve 0.4 1.72 17.2 44.7 0 Jun 2 Deve 0.51 2.2 22 63.2 0 Jun 3 Deve 0.65 2.87 28.7 55 0 Jul 1 Deve 0.79 3.56 35.6 41.1 0 Jul 2 Deve 0.93 4.27 42.7 34.5 8.2 Jul 3 Deve 1.08 4.8 52.8 40.1 12.7 Aug 1 Mid 1.22 5.24 52.4 46.9 5.5 Aug 2 Mid 1.25 5.19 51.9 51.1 0.8 Aug 3 Mid 1.25 5.06 55.6 56.1 0 Sep 1 Mid 1.25 4.93 49.3 65.4 0 43 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Sep 2 Mid 1.25 4.8 48 72.4 0 Sep 3 Mid 1.25 4.47 44.7 60.8 0 Oct 1 Mid 1.25 4.15 41.5 47.5 0 Oct 2 Mid 1.25 3.82 38.2 38.2 0 Oct 3 Mid 1.25 3.69 40.6 27 13.6 Nov 1 Mid 1.25 3.55 35.5 10.2 25.3 Nov 2 Mid 1.25 3.42 34.2 0 34.2 Nov 3 Mid 1.25 3.16 31.6 3.3 28.2 Dec 1 Mid 1.25 2.89 28.9 11.5 17.4 Dec 2 Mid 1.25 2.62 26.2 15 11.3 Dec 3 Mid 1.25 2.56 28.1 10.2 18 Jan 1 Mid 1.25 2.49 24.9 1.5 23.4 Jan 2 Mid 1.25 2.43 24.3 0 24.3 Jan 3 Mid 1.25 2.4 26.4 0.4 26 Feb 1 Late 1.23 2.34 23.4 1 22.3 Feb 2 Late 1.18 2.21 22.1 1.3 20.8 Feb 3 Late 1.14 2.18 17.4 6.7 10.7 Mar 1 Late 1.09 2.14 21.4 14.5 6.9 Mar 2 Late 1.04 2.09 20.9 20.2 0.7 Mar 3 Late 0.98 2.18 24 17.6 6.3 Apr 1 Late 0.93 2.25 22.5 14.2 8.4 Apr 2 Late 0.88 2.31 23.1 12.5 10.6 Apr 3 Late 0.83 2.57 25.7 10.9 14.8 May 1 Late 0.78 2.85 25.6 3.9 21.3 Total 1145.6 917.6 409.8 44 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Regarding to the Figure 4-9 and Table 4-5, it can be seen that water requirement of each crop changes due to different growing periods. With Spring-winter paddy in 2011, water demand increased significantly in November as well as the seasonal paddy had water demand increasing significantly in July. With sweet cane, water demand reached a peak in November. Therefore, due to the results of water requirement of the Nam Song Chu and the Bac Song Ma cultivated area determining water demand of whole area in years of 2011 and 2012. Accordingly, water demand of agriculture was 1093 Mi.m3 in 2011 and was 1149.7 Mi.m3 in 2012. This will be a major component to determine total water requirement of whole area which is su...fficient release and satisfied the water demands in downstream area more than the actual release as well as optimal operation would decrease water stress and conflicts in dry season. Figure 4-32: Comparison of water demand and fuzzy and actual releases V.2. Routing the release to the downstream The flow in dry season of year of 2011-2012 after the optimal operation of Cua Dat Reservoir is to rout to the downstream by MIKE 11 hydraulic model. The results of flow characteristics are in some of control points will be showed in some of figures and tables below: 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951535557596163656769717375 R es er v o ir r e le a se /D e m a n d ( M i. m 3 ) Ten-day period Water demand Optimal Release Actual release 75 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 5-1: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Bai Thuong weir Figure 5-2: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Xuan Khanh station 76 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure 5-3: Hydrograph of optimal operation at the Giang station Table 5-1: Flow characteristics at the Chu River downstream using optimal operation No. Flow characteristics Q Optimization (m3/s) Q Requirement (m3/s) Q Actual Release (m3/s) 1 Qday Baithuong min (m3/s) 35 30.42 29.3 2 Hday XuanKhanh min (m) 2.25 - 1.98 3 Qday XuanKhanh min (m3/s) 35.8 30.42 33.2 4 Hday Giang min (m) -0.091 - -1.06 According to the results above, it can be seen that the minimum daily discharge at the Bai Thuong weir is around 35 (m3/s) and the Xuan Khanh station is appropriate 36 (m3/s). The table 5-1 makes a comparison between the minimum daily discharges of the optimal operation and minimum daily discharge of requirement in the downstream area, Hence, the minimum daily discharges of the optimal operation is higher than minimum discharge of requirement and discharge of actual release. This showed that the optimal operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir using Fuzzy Logic approach determined efficient release and satisfied the minimum water demands in downstream area. 77 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis CHAPTER VI CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS VI.1. Conclusions The study investigated optimal reservoir operation using Fuzzy Logic algorithm for the Cua Dat Reservoir, which is located in Thanh Hoa province, middle of Vietnam. To apply Fuzzy Logic in this study, the author used the Fuzzy Tool Box of MATLAB software to optimize the release from the reservoir and it also simulated to downstream river by using MIKE 11 hydraulic model. In order to have an accuracy and reliable model for the purposes of this study, Fuzzy Logic algorithm is used with the information as existing rule curve of this reservoir, inflow into the reservoir, water level of the reservoir, observation discharge of hydropower plant. The observed data was recorded during the operation of the Cua Dat reservoir having short period because this reservoir has just operated since 2010. Moreover, water demand for water users in the downstream were also one of the important input variables for Fuzzy system, this variable was determined according to data related to water users such as Agriculture, Industry, Domestic, Hydropower, and Environment. The author determined that total water demand is about 4547 Mi.m3. From the results which are optimized from the Fuzzy operating systems for the Cua Dat Reservoir, the optimal discharge process was determined in the condition of shortage of water in the dry season, and reservoir can still meet 80% of water demand throughout the dry season from 2011 to 2012. While that, actual release was determined through observed data of the reservoir was only to supply about 73% of actual demand. To evaluate the efficiency of the optimal operation in the downstream river, the author has used two models including MIKE NAM and MIKE 11HD as an efficient way as mentioned in the literature review of the thesis. For model calibration and validation process, the hydrological and meteorological data was collected such as rainfall, evaporation and discharge from the stations on Ma- Chu river system in 2006 and 2008. To access performance of the models, the Nash- Sutcliffe coefficient (NASH) was used. For calibration period of NAM model, the NASH is 0.69 at the station indicated an acceptable value. For the validation period of NAM model, the 78 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis result indicated that between observed and simulated hydrograph have a good fit and similar pattern. NASH = 0.73 was acceptable value and indicated well validated model. Similarly, within MIKE 11 HD model calibration and validation. The results of model calibration at Ly Nhan, Xuan Khanh and Giang stations showed that having a good fit between observed and simulated data about pattern and peak value for the most of the stations. The NASH for stations varied from 0.87 to 0.92, the difference of two peaks is rather low. The results for model validation of MIKE 11 HD, the NASH for the same stations varied from 0.83 to 0.94, so that within the highest results, developed MIKE 11HD model could be confidently used for the purpose of this study. As mention above, the author used MIKE 11 model to simulate the release after optimal operation from Cua Dat Reservoir and the results illustrated that the minimum daily discharge at the Bai Thuong weir is around 35 (m3/s) and the Xuan Khanh station is appropriate 36 (m3/s). The minimum daily discharge of the optimal operation is higher than minimum daily discharge of requirement and actual release. Finally, those showed that the optimal operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir using Fuzzy Logic approach determined efficient release and satisfied the water demands in downstream area. The optimal operation would decrease water stress and conflicts in dry season. VI.2. Recommendations During the process of this thesis, the author has some following recommendations and suggestions for the future possible studies: It is very necessary to collect observed data during the operation of the Cua Dat Reservoir. Because the inputs for Fuzzy system need a long time period to calculate and design a system exactly. To determine exactly the water demand for agriculture sector using CROPWAT model need to collect many information of different crop plants in cultivated area. Therefore, the information relevant to water use of domestic is also necessary to determine water demand of system. One of limitations of this study, the author only used triangular membership function for the inputs and outputs of Fuzzy system. Moreover, using other data as rainfall, reservoir storage should pay attention as inputs of the Fuzzy system of Cua Dat Reservoir. The fuzzy rules in this study were defined by opinion of the author, 79 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis however, it is strongly recommended that the fuzzy rules should derive from a program or software in order to increase the efficiency of the system. In future, it is necessary to set up more hydrological and meteorological stations on Ma-Chu river basin to measure discharge, water level and meteorological factors; Modeling future events should attend to the dynamic changing of factors driving the changing of hydrological and hydraulic scheme of the river basin. For next study, the author really wants to apply the Fuzzy Logic algorithm on operation of a reservoir system to optimize operation of them and address all issues relevant to the river basin which has many reservoirs located in. 80 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis REFERENCES Bahremand A, De Smedt F. (2007). Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in Torysa Watershed, Slovakia. Water Resources Management. 22:393– 408 Cheng C.T, Wang W.C, Xu D.M, Chau K. W. (2008). Optimizing Hydropower Reservoir Operation Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Chaos. Water Resources Management 22:895–909 DHI software. (2011). MIKE 11 Reference Manual. Dansih Hydraulic Institute. 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Research on technology to operate reservoir systems which to prevent flood, regulate flood, operate reservoir safely and appropriately using water resources in dry season. National Technology – Science Project (in VietNamese) Long N. L, Henrik Madsen, Dan Rosbjerg. (2007). Simulation and optimization modeling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Viet Nam. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 269 – 281 81 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Mukand S. B, Chien N. D, Md. Reaz Akter Mullick, Umamahesh V. Nanduri. (2011). Operation of a hydropower system considering environmental flow requirements: A case study in La Nga river basin, Vietnam. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 6 63 – 73. Luhandjula M.K., Rangoaga M.J. (2013). An approach for solving a fuzzy multiple objective programming problem. European Journal of Operational Research, 232, 249 – 255. Moeini R, Afshar A, Afshar M.H. (2010). Fuzzy rule-based model for hydropower reservoirs operation. Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 33, 171-178. MARD (2013). Cua Dat reservoir operation policy. 5-8 pp (In Vietnamese) MARD (2014). Final engineering report of Cua Dat Reservoir in operation period. Project of Cua Dat Reservoir. Nagesh K. D, Falguni Baliarsingh, Srinivasa R.K. (2009). Optimal Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Using Folded Dynamic Programming. Water Resources Management (2010) 24:1045–1064. Omid B. H, Abbas Afshar, Miguel A.M (2008). Design-Operation of Multi- Hydropower Reservoirs: HBMO Approach. Water Resources Management (2008) 22:1709–1722. Piman T, Cochrane T. A, Arias M.E, Green A. and Dat N. D. (2012). Assessment of Flow Changes from Hydropower Development and Operations in Sekong, Sesan and Srepok Rivers of the Mekong Basin. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000286 Panigrahi D.P, Mujumdar P. P. (2000). Reservoir Operation Modelling with Fuzzy Logic. Water Resources Management 14: 89–109, 2000. Rama Mehta, Sharad K. Jain. (2009). Optimal Operation of a Multi-Purpose Reservoir Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technique. Water Resources Management (2009) 23:509– 529. 82 Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Tuan L.Q. (2012) Impacts on flow regime caused by dam construction for hydropower generation in the upper Se San river basin, using SWAT and WAFLEX models, Msc thesis, UNESCO- IHE, Netherlands, 19 pp. Vasantharajan S., Optimal Decisions Inc.; R. Al-Hussainy, Amerada Hess Ltd.; and R.F. Heinemann, Berry Petroleum Co. (2006). Applying Optimization Technology in Reservoir Management. JPT Distinguished Author Series. Van Waveren R.H, Groot S, Scholten H, van Geer F.C, . Wửsten J.H.M, Koeze R.D, Noort J.J. (nd). (1999). Good modelling practice handbook. Dutch Dept. of Public Works, Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment. Source: Tuyen, M.H. (2009). Research on optimal operation for reservoir system on Huong river basin in dry season. Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology. Hung, N.T, Hung L.N. (2010). Models for optimal operation of multiple-purpose reservoir. Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology. Nghia T.T. (2009). Building operation process for multi-reservoir including Hoa Binh, Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang supplying water in dry season for downstream of Hong- ThaiBinh river basin. Journal of Hydrology. i Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis APPENDICES Appendix 1: Water demand of some of crops in downstream area Figure A-1: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Maize in 2011 Table A-1: Water requirement of Maize in 2011 Months Decades Stage Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Sep 3 Init 0.3 1.08 1.1 6.1 1.1 Oct 1 Init 0.3 1 10 47.5 0 Oct 2 Deve 0.3 0.93 9.3 38.2 0 Oct 3 Deve 0.48 1.42 15.6 27 0 Nov 1 Deve 0.75 2.14 21.4 10.2 11.2 Nov 2 Deve 1.01 2.77 27.7 0 27.7 Nov 3 Mid 1.2 3.03 30.3 3.3 26.9 Dec 1 Mid 1.2 2.79 27.9 11.5 16.4 Dec 2 Mid 1.2 2.53 25.3 15 10.4 Dec 3 Mid 1.2 2.47 27.2 10.2 17 Jan 1 Late 1.1 2.2 22 1.5 20.5 Jan 2 Late 0.82 1.6 16 0 16 Jan 3 Late 0.52 1 11 0.4 10.6 Feb 1 Late 0.35 0.66 0.7 0.1 0.7 Total 245.5 171 158.5 ii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-2: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Sweet potatoes in 2011 Table A-2: Water requirement of Sweet potatoes in 2011 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Oct 2 Init 0.5 1.53 1.5 3.8 1.5 Oct 3 Init 0.5 1.48 16.3 27 0 Nov 1 Init 0.5 1.43 14.3 10.2 4.1 Nov 2 Deve 0.56 1.54 15.4 0 15.4 Nov 3 Deve 0.77 1.96 19.6 3.3 16.3 Dec 1 Deve 0.99 2.31 23.1 11.5 11.6 Dec 2 Mid 1.15 2.43 24.3 15 9.3 Dec 3 Mid 1.16 2.38 26.2 10.2 16 Jan 1 Mid 1.16 2.32 23.2 1.5 21.7 Jan 2 Mid 1.16 2.26 22.6 0 22.6 Jan 3 Late 1.15 2.2 24.2 0.4 23.9 Feb 1 Late 1.03 1.95 19.5 1 18.4 Feb 2 Late 0.89 1.66 16.6 1.3 15.3 Feb 3 Late 0.78 1.49 8.9 5 5.6 Total 255.7 90.1 181.7 iii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-3: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Spring paddy in 2012 Table A-3: Water requirement of Spring paddy in 2012 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Sep 2 Nurs 1.04 0.38 0.4 5.7 0.4 Sep 3 Nurs/LPr 1.04 0.7 7 53.8 20.4 Oct 1 Nurs/LPr 1.08 3.61 36.1 49.7 0 Oct 2 Init 1.09 3.52 35.2 46.9 70 Oct 3 Init 1.25 3.75 41.3 44.8 0 Nov 1 Deve 1.26 3.49 34.9 43.6 0 Nov 2 Deve 1.44 3.67 36.7 41.9 0 Nov 3 Deve 1.68 4.04 40.4 36.6 3.8 Dec 1 Mid 1.92 4.31 43.1 31.2 11.9 Dec 2 Mid 1.99 4.15 41.5 26.5 15 Dec 3 Mid 1.99 3.84 42.3 20.1 22.1 Jan 1 Mid 1.99 3.53 35.3 12.2 23.2 Jan 2 Late 1.97 3.19 31.9 5.3 26.6 Jan 3 Late 1.68 2.8 30.8 5 25.7 Feb 1 Late 1.32 2.25 22.5 4.6 17.9 Feb 2 Late 1.04 1.83 11 1.9 9.4 490.4 429.9 246.4 iv Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis FigureA-4: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of winter paddy in 2012 Table A-4: Water requirement of winter paddy in 2012 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Jul 1 Nurs 1.04 0.49 2.5 21.9 0 Jul 2 Nurs/LPr 1.06 2.76 27.6 44 21.2 Jul 3 Nurs/LPr 1.08 4.85 53.3 46.7 76.6 Aug 1 Init 1.18 5.12 51.2 50.1 55.3 Aug 2 Init 1.25 5.2 52 52.7 0 Aug 3 Deve 1.26 5.03 55.3 53.6 1.7 Sep 1 Deve 1.31 4.99 49.9 55.4 0 Sep 2 Mid 1.35 4.88 48.8 57.1 0 Sep 3 Mid 1.35 4.71 47.1 53.8 0 Oct 1 Mid 1.35 4.53 45.3 49.7 0 Oct 2 Late 1.29 4.16 41.6 46.9 0 Oct 3 Late 1.07 3.21 35.3 44.8 0 Nov 1 Late 0.93 2.58 5.2 8.7 5.2 Total 514.9 585.5 159.9 : v Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-5: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of sugar cane in 2012 Table A-5: Water requirement of sugar cane in 2012 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec May 1 Init 0.79 3.11 3.1 2.9 0 May 2 Init 0.4 1.73 17.3 39.7 0 May 3 Init 0.4 1.8 19.8 40.9 0 Jun 1 Deve 0.4 1.89 18.9 41.5 0 Jun 2 Deve 0.5 2.44 24.4 44 0 Jun 3 Deve 0.64 3.08 30.8 44.3 0 Jul 1 Deve 0.78 3.71 37.1 43.8 0 Jul 2 Deve 0.92 4.32 43.2 44 0 Jul 3 Deve 1.07 4.83 53.1 46.7 6.3 Aug 1 Mid 1.21 5.24 52.4 50.1 2.3 Aug 2 Mid 1.24 5.16 51.6 52.7 0 Aug 3 Mid 1.24 4.93 54.2 53.6 0.6 Sep 1 Mid 1.24 4.71 47.1 55.4 0 Sep 2 Mid 1.24 4.48 44.8 57.1 0 Sep 3 Mid 1.24 4.32 43.2 53.8 0 Oct 1 Mid 1.24 4.15 41.5 49.7 0 Oct 2 Mid 1.24 3.99 39.9 46.9 0 Oct 3 Mid 1.24 3.72 40.9 44.8 0 vi Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Nov 1 Mid 1.24 3.44 34.4 43.6 0 Nov 2 Mid 1.24 3.17 31.7 41.9 0 Nov 3 Mid 1.24 2.97 29.7 36.6 0 Dec 1 Mid 1.24 2.78 27.8 31.2 0 Dec 2 Mid 1.24 2.58 25.8 26.5 0 Dec 3 Mid 1.24 2.39 26.3 20.1 6.1 Jan 1 Mid 1.24 2.2 22 12.2 9.8 Jan 2 Mid 1.24 2.01 20.1 5.3 14.8 Jan 3 Mid 1.24 2.06 22.7 5 17.6 Feb 1 Late 1.22 2.09 20.9 4.6 16.3 Feb 2 Late 1.18 2.06 20.6 3.2 17.4 Feb 3 Late 1.13 2.12 16.9 5.9 11 Mar 1 Late 1.09 2.16 21.6 10 11.6 Mar 2 Late 1.04 2.18 21.8 12.8 9.1 Mar 3 Late 0.98 2.44 26.9 11.1 15.8 Apr 1 Late 0.93 2.66 26.6 5.9 20.7 Apr 2 Late 0.88 2.85 28.5 3.2 25.3 Apr 3 Late 0.83 2.99 29.9 14.3 15.6 May 1 Late 0.79 3.11 28 26.1 0 Total 1145.4 1131.5 200.4 vii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-6: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Maize in 2012 Table A-6: Water requirement of Maize in 2012 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec May 2 Init 0.3 1.3 7.8 23.8 0 May 3 Init 0.3 1.35 14.8 40.9 0 Jun 1 Deve 0.37 1.73 17.3 41.5 0 Jun 2 Deve 0.62 2.98 29.8 44 0 Jun 3 Deve 0.87 4.16 41.6 44.3 0 Jul 1 Mid 1.12 5.28 52.8 43.8 9 Jul 2 Mid 1.19 5.55 55.5 44 11.5 Jul 3 Mid 1.19 5.35 58.8 46.7 12.1 Aug 1 Mid 1.19 5.14 51.4 50.1 1.3 Aug 2 Late 1.17 4.87 48.7 52.7 0 Aug 3 Late 0.94 3.72 41 53.6 0 Sep 1 Late 0.64 2.44 24.4 55.4 0 Sep 2 Late 0.42 1.52 9.1 34.2 0 Total 453 575.1 33.9 viii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-7: Seasonal period and chart of water requirement of Sweet Potatoes in 2012 Table A-7: Water requirement of Sweet Potatoes in 2012 Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Oct 2 Init 0.5 1.61 1.6 4.7 1.6 Oct 3 Init 0.5 1.5 16.5 44.8 0 Nov 1 Init 0.5 1.39 13.9 43.6 0 Nov 2 Deve 0.56 1.44 14.4 41.9 0 Nov 3 Deve 0.77 1.86 18.6 36.6 0 Dec 1 Deve 0.99 2.22 22.2 31.2 0 Dec 2 Mid 1.15 2.4 24 26.5 0 Dec 3 Mid 1.16 2.23 24.5 20.1 4.4 Jan 1 Mid 1.16 2.05 20.5 12.2 8.3 Jan 2 Mid 1.16 1.87 18.7 5.3 13.5 Jan 3 Late 1.14 1.9 20.9 5 15.9 Feb 1 Late 1.03 1.76 17.6 4.6 13 Feb 2 Late 0.9 1.58 15.8 3.2 12.5 ix Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Months Decades Stages Kc ETc ETc Eff rain Irr. Req. coeff mm/day mm/dec mm/dec mm/dec Feb 3 Late 0.79 1.49 8.9 4.4 6 Total 238.2 284.3 75.2 Table A-8: Monthly water demand of agriculture of whole area in the Cua Dat reservoir downstream in 2012 Water demand of Bac Song Chu cultivated area in 2012 Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Q(m3/s) 12.7 15.1 16.0 17.1 12.7 26.6 18.9 8.03 4.01 5.19 8.03 33.5 14.8 W(106m3) 34.5 36.9 43.4 44.1 34.5 69.0 51.0 21.9 11.4 14.8 21.2 90.2 473.8 Water demand of Nam Song Chu cultivated area in 2012 Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Q(m3/s) 42.4 42.7 61.3 57.1 22.3 0.226 16.3 0.117 0.389 0.489 0.231 14.5 21.5 W(106m3) 113.7 103.3 164.2 148.1 59.8 0.6 43.6 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.61 39.0 675.9 Water demand of agriculture of whole area in 2012 Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Q(m3/s) 55.2 57.8 77.4 74.1 35.0 26.8 35.2 8.15 4.39 5.68 8.27 48.1 36.3 W(106m3) 148.3 140.2 207.7 192.6 94.3 69.5 94.7 22.2 12.4 16.1 21.8 129.2 1149.7 x Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Appendix 2: Water demand in ten-day period in year of 2012 Table A-9: Water demand in ten-day period in 2012 Months Period Demand in ten-day unit in M.m3 Jan 1-10 73.57 Jan 11-20 59.08 Jan 21-31 63.18 Feb 1-10 83.53 Feb 11-20 87.92 Feb 21-28 79.82 Mar 1-10 87.19 Mar 11-20 86.16 Mar 21-31 96.58 Apr 1-10 71.40 Apr 11-20 101.15 Apr 21-30 55.45 May 1-10 50.53 May 11-20 59.67 May 21-31 102.33 Jun 1-10 112.62 Jun 11-20 107.10 Jun 21-30 48.04 Jul 1-10 46.21 Jul 11-20 60.94 Jul 21-31 72.50 Aug 1-10 37.00 Aug 11-20 63.07 Aug 21-30 100.00 Sep 1-10 112.11 Sep 11-20 124.16 Sep 21-31 118.82 xi Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Months Period Demand in ten-day unit in M.m3 Oct 1-10 121.28 Oct 11-20 120.93 Oct 21-31 131.08 Nov 1-10 115.59 Nov 11-20 106.62 Nov 21-30 119.59 xii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Appendix 3: Observed and calculated data of inputs and outputs in the Fuzzy system Figure A-8: Average daily discharge into the Cua Dat Reservoir in 2011 and 2012 Figure A-9: Average daily water level of the Cua Dat Reservoir in 2011 Figure A-10: Average daily water level of the Cua Dat Reservoir in 2012 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 D is ch a rg e (m 3 /s ) Days2011 2012 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 100.00 105.00 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 W a te r l ev el ( m ) Days 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 W a te r l ev el ( m ) Days xiii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-11: Average daily turbin discharge of the Cua Dat hydropower plant in 2012 Figure A-12: Average daily turbin discharge of the Cua Dat hydropower plant in 2011 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 T u rb in d is ch a rg e (m 3 /s ) Days 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 1 1 3 2 5 3 7 4 9 6 1 7 3 8 5 9 7 1 0 9 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 4 5 1 5 7 1 6 9 1 8 1 1 9 3 2 0 5 2 1 7 2 2 9 2 4 1 2 5 3 2 6 5 2 7 7 2 8 9 3 0 1 3 1 3 3 2 5 3 3 7 3 4 9 3 6 1 T u rb in d is c h a r g e (m 3 /s ) Days xiv Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Appendix 4: Inputs of MIKE 11 HD model Figure A-13: Average daily discharge at the Cam Thuy and Cua Dat station in 2006 Figure A-14: Average daily water level at the Hoang Tan and Kim Tan station in 2006 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 D is ch a g re ( m 3 /s ) Days Cam Thuy Cua Dat -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 W a te r L ev el (m 3 /s ) Days Kim Tan Hoang Tan xv Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Figure A-15: Average daily discharge at the Cam Thuy and Cua Dat station in 2008 Figure A-16: Average daily water level at the Hoang Tan and Kim Tan station in 2008 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 D is ch a rg e (m 3 /s ) Days Cam Thuy Cua Dat -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 W a te r l ev el (m ) Days Kim Tan Hoang Tan xvi Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Appendix 5: Fuzzy rules base for the Cua Dat Reservoir Rules No. Res.levels (and) Inflows (and) Demands (Then) Releases 1 If Med.High V.Low Low Low 2 If Low.med V.Low low Low 3 If Low.med V.Low low Low.Med 4 If Low.med V.Low Low Medium 5 If Low.med V.Low V.Low Low 6 If Low.med V.Low V.Low V.Low 7 If Low V.Low Very.High Low.med 8 If Medium V.Low V.High Med.High 9 If Low V.Low Low V.Low 10 If Low V.Low Medium Low.Med 11 If Low.Med V.low Medium Medium 12 If Low Low V.Low Low 13 If Medium Low Low Low 14 If Low.Med V.Low Low.Med Medium 15 If V.Low V.Low Medium Low 16 If V.Low V.Low High High 17 If V.Low V.Low Low Low 18 If V.Low V.Low V.Low V.Low 19 If V.Low Low Low Low 20 If V.Low Low Medium Low.Med 21 If V.Low Low Medium Medium 22 If Low Low Medium Medium 23 If Low Low Medium Low.Med 24 If Low Med.High High Med.High 25 If Low Med.High High High 26 If Low.med Med.High High High 27 If Medium Medium High High 28 If Medium Med.High High High 29 If Med.High medium High High 30 If Med.High Med.High High High 31 If Medium Very.High High High 32 If Med.High Very.High High High 33 If Med.High Medium Very.High V.V.High 34 If High Medium Very.High V.V.High 35 If High Med.High High V.V.High 36 If Medium Low Very.High V.V.High 37 If Med.High Low Very.High V.V.High 38 If Medium Very.High Very.High V.V.High 39 If Med.High Very.High Very.High V.V.High 40 If Medium Medium High V.V.High 41 If Medium Medium Very.High V.V.High xvii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Rules No. Res.levels (and) Inflows (and) Demands (Then) Releases 42 If Medium High High High 43 If Medium High Very.High V.V.High 44 If Med.High Medium High V.V.High 45 If Med.High Medium Very.High V.V.High 46 If Med.High High High V.V.High 47 If Med.High High Very.High V.V.High 48 If Medium Low High High 49 If Medium Low Very.High High 50 If Med.High Low High High 51 If Med.High Low Very.High High 52 If High Low High V.V.High 53 If High Low Very.High V.V.High 54 If Medium Low Medium Medium 55 If Medium Low Medium Med.high 56 If Med.High Low Medium medium 57 If Med.High Low Medium Med.high 58 If Med.High Low High Med.High 59 If Medium Low high High 60 If Medium V.Low Low Low.Med 61 If Medium V.Low Low Med 62 If Medium V.Low Medium Med 63 If Medium V.Low Medium Low.Med 64 If Med.High Low Low Low 65 If Medium Low Low Low 66 If Med.High Low Low Low 67 If Med.High Low Low Medium 68 If High Low Low Medium 69 If Med.High Low Medium Medium 70 If high Low Medium Medium 71 If Med.High V.low Low Low.med 72 If High V.low Low Low.med 73 If Med.High V.low Low Low 74 If Med.High V.low Medium Low 75 If Med.High Low Low Low 76 If Med.High Low Medium Low 77 If High V.low Low Low 78 If High V.low Medium Low 79 If High Low Low Low 80 If High Low Medium Low 81 If Med.High V.low Medium Medium 82 If High V.low Medium Medium 83 If Medium V.low Medium Medium 84 If Medium V.low Medium Med.high xviii Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Rules No. Res.levels (and) Inflows (and) Demands (Then) Releases 85 If Medium V.low High Med.high 86 If Medium V.low High Medium 87 If Medium Low Medium Medium 88 If Medium Low Medium Med.high 89 If Med.High V.low Medium Medium 90 If Med.High V.low Medium Med.high 91 If Med.High V.low High Med.high 92 If Med.High V.low High Medium 93 If Med.High Low Medium Medium 94 If Med.High Low Medium Med.high 95 If Low.med v.low Medium Med.high 96 If Low V.low High Med.high 97 If Low.med V.low High Med.high 98 If Low V.low Low Low 99 If Low V.low Low Low.med 100 If Low.med v.low Low Low 101 If Low.med V.low Low Low.med 102 If V.Low V.low V.low Low.med 103 If V.Low V.low Low Low.med 104 If V.Low V.low Low Medium 105 If Low V.low Low Medium 106 If V.Low Low High Med.high 107 If V.Low Low High High 108 If Low Low High Med.high 109 If Low Low High High 110 If Low V.low High High 111 If Low.Med V.low High High 112 If Low.Med V.low V.high High 113 If Low V.low V.high High 114 If V.Low V.low Low V.low 115 If V.Low V.low Medium V.low 116 If Low V.low Low V.low 117 If Low M.low Medium V.low 118 If Low Med.high V.low Low.med 119 If Low Med.high Low Low.med 120 If Low.med Med.high High Med.high 121 If Low.med High High Med.high 122 If Low.med Med.high High High 123 If Low.med High High High 124 If Medium Med.high High Med.high 125 If Medium High High Med.high 126 If Medium Med.high High High 127 If Medium High High High xix Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Rules No. Res.levels (and) Inflows (and) Demands (Then) Releases 128 If Med.High High High high 129 If Med.High High V.high High 130 If Medium High V.high High 131 If Medium Medium High High 132 If Medium Medium V.high High 133 If Medium Med.high High High 134 If Medium Med.high V.high High 135 If High High V.high High 136 If High Medium High High 137 If High Medium V.high High 138 If High Med.high High High 139 If High Med.high V.high High 140 If Medium Medium High V.v.high 141 If Medium Medium V.high V.v.high 142 If High Medium High V.v.high 143 If High Medium V.high V.v.high 144 If Medium Low High V.v.high 145 If Medium Low V.high V.v.high 146 If High Low High V.v.high 147 If High Low V.high V.v.high 148 If Medium V.low High V.v.high 149 If Medium V.low V.high V.v.high 150 If Med.High V.low High V.v.high 151 If Med.High V.low V.high V.v.high 152 If medium V.low High Med.high 153 If Med.high V.low High Med.high 154 If Low.med V.low High High 155 If Low.med Low High High 156 If Medium V.low High High 157 If Medium Low High High xx Trinh Xuan Manh MSc Thesis Appendix 6: Existing operation rule curve of the Cua Dat Reservoir Table A-10: Operation curves of the Cua Dat Reservoir Periods Crumble curve Limited curve 30/VI 97 73 31/VII 100 82 31/VIII 104 85 30/IX 109 96 31/X 110 105 30/XI 112 106 31/XII 112 106 31/I 112 103 28/II 108 97 31/III 105 90 30/IV 103 83 31/V 99 77 30/VI 97 73 Figure A-17: The map of operation curves of the Cua Dat Reservoir 70 80 90 100 110 120 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 B A B C C D E Flood control increment level=110,00m Max Water level=119,05m Dam elevation 121.30 m 3 1 2 Dead storage level=73m Flood control level=112,00m